Defiance: 2nd Russo-Ukrainian War 2022-? Volume 1 – Miracle on the Dnipro 2022

Background

November 9, 1989: the fall of the Berlin Wall is a pivotal event in world history which marked the destruction of the Iron Curtain. Within two years, the USSR would collapse and 15 republics, including Ukraine, would gain independence from the disintegrating Soviet [Russian] empire.

December 1994: the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Russian Federation guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in perpetuity with the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for Ukraine relinquishing its inherited nuclear arms from the dissolved USSR.

April 24, 2005: in his annual state of the nation address on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the collapse of the Soviet empire “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century."

February 22, 2014: the [Ukraine] Rada voted 328–0 to remove Yanukovych, [Putin puppet leader of Ukraine], from his post and schedule an early presidential election for 25 May [capping the Maidan revolution].

February 27, 2014: unmarked Russian forces with nationalist paramilitaries took over the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, seizing the building of the Supreme Council of Crimea and the building of the Council of Ministers in Simferopol.

Russian flags were raised over these buildings. Whilst the "little green men" were occupying the Crimean parliament building, the parliament held an emergency session.

It voted to terminate the Crimean government.

March 1, 2014: attempts to seize the Donetsk regional state administration (RSA) building began after Russian-led protests erupted in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, in the wake of the Maidan Revolution.

August, 2014: Russia and Ukraine sign first Minsk Protocol, generating a frozen (but hot) conflict in Donbas and Luhansk oblasts in Ukraine.

February 5, 2020: President Donald Trump acquitted of impeachment surrounding an attempt to coerce Ukraine (“arms for acquisitions”) to provide damaging narratives regarding Democratic presidential candidate.

January 6, 2021: United States Capitol attacked by supporters of President Donald Trump attempting to prevent peaceful transfer of power for the first time in the history of the republic.

On July 7, 2021, Putin published an essay titled “On the historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.”

In one particularly ominous passage, Putin openly questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine’s borders and argued that much of modern-day Ukraine occupies historically Russian lands, before stating, “Russia was robbed.”

On January 19, 2022, President Joe Biden said “Russia will invade Ukraine” and warned President Vladimir Putin that his country would pay a “dear price” in lives lost.

36 days later, Russia invaded Ukraine...again

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014 with the overthrow of a Putin-allied leader opposing Ukraine’s European integration.

The invasion by a totalitarian state was the largest attack on a European republic since World War II.

Russian special forces and paratroopers conducted an air assault of Hostomel airport (just outside of Kyiv) along with a number of operational movements in the northeast, north central, and southern portions of Ukraine.

Russia anticipated a short, victorious campaign.

Less than six weeks later, Russia was routed by spirited Ukrainian defense from the Kyiv/Chernihiv theater.

Defiance builds upon Victory Games’ (Mark Herman’s) Flashpoint Golan (1991), adds a strategic political component (David Dockter's) Triumph of Chaos (2019), and updates the system for modern multi-domain warfare/the expanded revolution in military affairs (eRMA).

As a first draft of history, Defiance strives to simulate an ongoing conflict; a significant design challenge, but one worth tackling.

We believe that operational combat has again evolved—more dependent upon troop quality and supporting assets versus simple relative odds of attacker and defender force ratio (the good ole 3-1 we were raised on).

Additionally, we believe that the initial Russian invasion and toppling of the Ukrainian republic was a 50/50 proposition.

Russia failed.

Why? 

Could the probability of success have been higher or lower?

What could have driven that?

Defiance invites students of the conflict to explore the answers to those questions.

We hope to cover other operational campaigns in this conflict with future volumes of Defiance.

At its core, Defiance is a simulation where players purchase formation chits with logistics points, pull chits from a cup of chaos, and play by activating a formation to conduct movement & combat, while avoiding enemy detection & response.

HQs figure prominently in the game by providing operational points to their units, summoning assets (air, missiles, drones, helicopters) and utilizing capabilities to compliment formation performance.

A game turn has three phases: Strategic, Operational, and Logistics.

During the Strategic Phase, events and political dynamics move five political tracks (Zelenskyy, NATO, Lukashenko, Putin and Russian MoD Elan) and provide a range of bonuses/penalties.

Logistics points are generated and utilized to purchase HQ chits (which activate formations), offensive supply, and other effects.

A Cup of Chaos is constructed which includes purchased HQ chits, a Berg random events chit, bonus chits, and chits that cause the turn to end.

Russians have a significant challenge, given their dependency upon railroads. Available strike assets (aircraft, helicopters, drones, missiles) and HQ Capabilities are generated for each side.

Theater actions (strikes & electronic warfare attacks) are conducted.

Finally, supply is determined (and checked during the operational phase) and units are designated for reorganization.

During the Operational Phase, players activate HQs and associated formation units to conduct movement and combat (either meeting engagement or set piece battles).

Each HQ may draw upon capabilities (support assets) that may be employed to assist friendly operations or thwart enemy efforts.

Combat considers primarily troop quality and die roll modifiers (drm’s) for terrain, supply, combat support, platform superiority and other effects.

Defiance has three combat resolution systems: Meeting Engaement, Set Piece Battle and VOVK (SoF/Partisan) Encounters. Generally, a Troop Quality check is made for involved units.

If the die roll result is higher than a unit’s TQ (troop quality), that unit suffers a reduction in morale (normal, disorganized, broken, cadre).

Depending upon which side or sides suffer morale reductions, a wide range of battle outcomes is determined.

With its VOVK mechanic, Defiance models SoF (Special Forces), partisan and civilian resistance activity: civilian unpredictability, interaction between conventional and unconventional forces and operational chaos and friction.

When a Russian stack enters a triggering hex, a VOVK chit is draw.

The chit may be a Ukrainian unit or a WIDE range of events.

If a unit, combat is resolved on the VOVK Encounter Table.

If an event, resolved.

So, players will grapple with a tactical uncertainty engine that will generate much operational friction.

During the Logistics Phase, bonuses/penalties are awarded via SitRep cards, reorganization occurs, HQs recover and various other odds and ends resolved.

In Defiance, there are no victory conditions per se.

The object of the simulation is for the Russian side to displace the Ukrainian government from Kyiv (“Displacement”), while the Ukrainian side strives to prevent..

Scenarios

The game includes multiple two-player scenarios, including several shorter scenarios plus a campaign game.

A bot for Russia allows solitaire play of the Ukrainian side in each scenario.

Distributor:

GMT Games LLC

PO Box 1308

Hanford, CA 93230

gmtoffice@gmtgames.com